German and EU market opportunity
There are medical cannabis supply deficiencies throughout the EU resulting from the limited number of cannabis producers that have been issued EU-GMP certificates. The retail price for medical cannabis in Germany in pharmacy currently lies around €95-115 per 5g package, resulting in a retail price of ca. €20 per gram.
In 2017, medical cannabis was legalized in Germany. Currently there are about 40,000 patients in Germany. In countries such as Canada, Netherlands, Israel and US with years long MC legalisation (Canada 10 years), medical cannabis patient numbers lie around 1% of population. Thus, it is forecasted to reach around 800k- 1M in Germany (80M total population). Market projection for 2028 is around €7.7bn. ⅔ of patients have full cost of medical cannabis reimbursed by health insurances. This means, the German market only reached around 5% of its potential to-date.
The total number of medical cannabis recipes more than doubled from 25,000 to 52,000 between the first quarter of 2018 and the second quarter of 2019. Medical cannabis flowers, which are mostly imported, continued to grow from around 1,200 kg in 2017, to 3,000 kg in 2018, to ca. 8,000 kg in 2019.
⅔ of all sales are 5 Gram packages, ⅓ are in packages between 10g and 25g.
Linear vs exponential growth of medical cannabis prescriptions in Germany (in ‘000)
The wider EU market with a population of 510 M people, was estimated to be worth around €80 M in 2018. Thanks to its social welfare and public health insurance market, it is broadly considered that Europe will be the world’s largest medical cannabis market within five years, with some analysts projecting a total market size north of €100 bn by 2028.